Freight fraud is moving from physical cargo theft to identity-based deception, according to a FreightWaves interview with E3 Group co-founder and CEO Aqil Naeem. Reported Q2 2026 cargo theft incidents fell roughly a quarter year on year, but losses over the same period more than doubled to US$304.6 million, with the average theft now about US$564,000 (Verisk), and industry estimates suggest only about 10% of incidents are ever reported at all. Naeem attributes the shift to cheap impersonation: magnetic carrier decals and fake plates ordered overnight, carrier email logins bought on the dark web, and AI-generated photographs of trucks and CDLs. The pattern E3 sees repeating is phishing campaigns and remote-access malware used to take over carrier business email and compliance accounts, so fraudulent pickup instructions arrive from the real inbox and a fictitious pickup can be run remotely without anyone entering the yard. E3's verification service cross-checks the CDL barcode against the card front, VINs across cab card, door-jamb sticker and broker records, and cell-tower, GPS and IP location data, flagging a verification link opened in the wrong state; Naeem calls November and December the highest-risk months. Why it matters: the weak point in freight has moved from the trailer lock to the mailbox and the credential, so brokers and carriers must verify the person behind the wheel, not the paperwork.

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