The Australian Securities and Investments Commission told licensees it is "not currently convinced" that prediction-market contracts for retail clients are in the public interest, describing them as "highly speculative" all-or-nothing bets with "all the features of a bet" and comparing them to binary options — banned for retail clients in Australia since 2021. ASIC's warning, carried via financial-services trade press, flags market-integrity risks including misuse of confidential information, market manipulation and disputes over how outcomes are determined, and makes two compliance points: Australians who access offshore platforms directly do not have protections under Australian law, and licensed financial services providers that facilitate access to offshore providers remain subject to all their obligations under Australian law for that activity. The statement lands against a background of surging retail interest in event contracts — US platform Kalshi reported over 30 million accounts and a US$40 billion valuation on its latest raise — and follows last week's compromise of prediction-market Polymarket, reinforcing the regulator's scepticism about the product class.

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